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Hopes for a diplomatic resolution between the US and Iran have come under significant pressure following naval clashes in the Strait of Hormuz. Both sides have traded blame for the initial provocation:
Iran claims the US violated the existing ceasefire by opening fire on Iranian vessels first.
Meanwhile US Asserts that its strikes on Iranian military facilities were a direct response to attacks launched against US Navy vessels.
This flare-up occurred just as Iran was reportedly considering a US proposal to end the war. Despite the escalation, President Trump maintains that the ceasefire is “still on” and that the US does not seek further conflict. However, he issued a stark ultimatum: the US will hit back “a lot harder, and a lot more violently” if Iran fails to sign a deal soon.
European Equities Slide as Volatility Returns
Global equity markets were hit by a wave of volatility following the news. Broad European indices took a sharp turn lower, erasing most of the gains made on Wednesday that were fueled by peace talk optimism.
In the currency markets, the US Dollar Index (DXY) surged from its recent low near 97.60 as safe-haven bids kicked in. Simultaneously, crude oil prices rebounded from their recent slide, reflecting renewed concerns over supply disruptions in the Middle East.
What’s Next for the Market?
Investor anxiety remains high due to the fragility of the ceasefire. However, the broader market impact may be contained if no further military escalation occurs.
The immediate focus shifts to tonight’s US April Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) release. Market consensus expects 65K jobs added, a significant slowdown from March’s 178K. If job growth proves more resilient than expected amidst triple-digit oil prices, the “higher for longer” interest rate narrative will likely solidify, potentially crushing risk appetite in global equities.
US Dollar Index | Source: Ultima Markets MT5
The US Dollar is currently hovering near the 98.00 level as safe-haven demand eases slightly, with the market moving into a “wait-and-see” mode ahead of the NFP report.
For more analysis and a deeper outlook on the US Dollar and NFP Preview, please read our latest Market Insights for 8 May 2026 at Ultima Markets.
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