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地缘冲突隐忧与超预期 ADP:美元瞄准关键阻力

Ultima Markets 每日市场洞察 – 2026年6月4日

地缘政治恐慌与强劲的 ADP 数据点燃市场转折

中东紧张局势的突然升级再度点燃了市场的焦虑情绪。科威特周三报告称,伊朗的导弹和无人机袭击击中了其国际机场。作为回应,伊朗声称在美军实施了先前的空袭后,其对美国驻科威特的军事基地发起了报复性打击。

这种重新抬头的地缘政治不确定性正给风险资产带来重大逆风,随着投资者争相涌向避险资产,美国及全球股市普遍遭遇回撤。然而,目前的局势依然充满变数,而非完全走向灾难性,双方近期的评论也突显了这一点:

  • 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示,结束与伊朗战争的协议“可能会在周末达成”。
  • 伊朗外交部长阿拉格齐指出,虽然与美国的联系尚未切断,但谈判没有取得任何进展。
  • 伊朗外交部长还警告称:“如果以色列入侵贝鲁特,战争将会重新爆发。”

鉴于交火规模相对较小,且黎巴嫩的停火协议存在巨大的不确定性,目前的局势依然是一个多变的未知数。

加剧这种地缘政治压力的是,最新公布的美国 ADP 就业报告超出了市场预期,5 月份就业人数增加了 12.2 万人,而预期为 11 万人。这一强劲的劳动力市场数据进一步巩固了美联储的鹰派立场,多位美联储官员近期也暗示将在更长时间内维持高利率,以对抗具有粘性的通胀。综合来看,这些因素在昨日共同引发了市场的剧烈转折。

美元:宏观面看涨,技术面测试阻力

从宏观经济的角度来看,美元依然表现出绝对的看涨态势。强劲的就业数据、美联储的鹰派言论,以及避险资金持续流入的潜力,都为其提供了有力的支撑。然而,交易员目前的直接焦点依然牢牢锁定在技术图表上。

美元指数,4小时图表 | Ultima Markets MT5

美元指数,4小时图表 | Ultima Markets MT5

美元目前正在测试 99.35 至 99.50 之间的主要结构性阻力位。交易员将密切观察美元能否决定性地突破该阻力带以维持其上行轨迹,或者其是否会面临技术性遇阻,从而陷入短期的盘整阶段。

这种技术面上的僵持,也令欧元/美元和英镑/美元等主要货币对被困在关键的区间之内。

美元/日元在 160.00 关口面临干预恐慌

尽管美元整体依然强势,但日元近期出人意料地成功兑几大主要对手货币赢得了一些涨幅。尽管如此,美元/日元货币对依然处于高位,并且在逼近 160.00 这一关键水平时,继续面临着严厉的审视。

交易员们正对日本当局在这一心理关口可能实施的货币干预保持高度戒备。

  • 然而,该货币对能够坚守在 160.00 关口附近,释放出信号表明市场需要的不仅仅是日本央行对未来加息的口头承诺。
  • 因此,口头干预目前发挥的作用是作为一层强大的中期顶部阻力,而非决定性的反转触发器。
美元/日元,4小时图表 | Ultima Markets MT5

美元/日元,4小时图表 | Ultima Markets MT5

从技术面来看,美元/日元依然嵌入在一个健康的上升趋势结构中。纯粹基于干预风险而逆势做空的举动,在技术面上缺乏足够的理由,因为这样做就如同盲目押注。与此同时,在如此高的位置追高同样伴随着严峻的风险。

在突破发生之前,160.00 区间依然是核心战场。

  • 我们需要看到价格明确突破至 160.00 上方,以确认上行趋势的延续。
  • 或者看到价格跌破 159.00,以确认潜在的看跌反转。

风险敏感澳元:面临强劲逆风

美联储的鹰派立场、强势的美元以及再度抬头的地缘政治恐慌相互交织,正在为风险敏感型资产创造出极度恶劣的环境。特别是澳元/美元,目前正面临着严峻的逆风。

随着全球股市回撤和风险偏好恶化,交易员正在积极将资金从澳元等风险敏感型货币中转移出来。澳元/美元的技术支撑位目前正承受着巨大压力,除非地缘政治紧张局势出现实质性的降温,或美元的强势有所缓和,否则短期展望依然偏向下行。

澳元/美元,4小时图表 | Ultima Markets MT5

澳元/美元,4小时图表 | Ultima Markets MT5

从技术面来看,澳元/美元近期的价格走势已经形成了一个潜在的反转形态,但该货币对整体上仍维持在 0.7120 这一主要支撑位处进行宽幅盘整,该水平同时充当着关键的颈线。

  • 如果市场情绪进一步恶化,决定性地跌破 0.7120 可能会释放出强烈的看跌反转信号。
  • 相反,如果紧张局势缓解带动情绪回暖,我们需要看到价格强势突破 0.7190 – 0.7200 区域,以确认看涨趋势的延续。

市场展望总结

总而言之,由于市场正试图在动荡的中东局势升级与超出预期的美国 ADP 就业数据之间寻找平衡,周四的交易时段呈现出一种谨慎、规避风险的基调。

尽管避险资金的流入和美联储的鹰派预期维持了美元基本面上的看涨势头,但美元指数在 99.35 – 99.50 阻力区正面临着严峻的技术性考验。这种更为强势的美元继续对风险资产施压,迫使澳元/美元去测试关键的 0.7120 颈线支撑位。

与此同时,美元/日元依然僵持在 160.00 关口的高风险博弈中,被夹在顽强的技术性上行趋势与日本东京方面迫在眉睫的直接政策干预威胁之间。

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