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AI 樂觀情緒推動股市走高;美元在 99.00 核心軸線停滯不前

Ultima Markets 每日市場洞察 – 2026年6月3日

全球股市:AI 樂觀情緒掩蓋地緣政治陰霾

全球股市繼續保持上行勢頭,受到對人工智慧持續熱情的強力推動。這種由科技股帶動的強勁動能,正有效掩蓋中東地區揮之不去的局勢不確定性。

儘管地緣政治風險通常會壓制市場情緒,但目前市場對風險資產的胃口依然異常強勁,使得股市多頭能夠牢牢把握主導權,並推動股指進一步走高。

就目前而言,尚無明確跡象表明這一動能會受到壓制,整體展望依舊維持看漲。然而,隨著大盤反彈成色拉得愈發高昂,目前的交易機會可能更適合短線操作,而長線或底倉交易員在此關頭則必須保持審慎。

美元展望:在 99.00 核心軸線附近停滯不前

股市的飆升以及更廣泛的風險偏好環境,導致美元近期的上行動能陷入停滯。儘管美元近期面臨一定壓力,但綠背(美鈔)整體上正處於狹窄的盤整階段,在至關重要的 99.00 結構性水準附近搖擺不定。

USDX, H4 圖表 | Ultima Markets MT5

USDX, H4 圖表 | Ultima Markets MT5

美元指數繼續在區間震盪的結構內移動。儘管早前曾短暫跌破 99.00 水準,但隨後已收復失地。然而,這種曠日持久的盤整也釋放出訊號,表明多頭目前可能正面臨重大挑戰。

交易員必須密切關注該區域,以尋找站穩支撐或決定性破位的契機。若能持續守住 99.00,則可能訊號其更廣泛的強勢將延續;反之,一旦跌破該核心軸線,則可能會引發更深度的技術性回檔。

目前來看,由於缺乏根本性的利多催化劑,加之美元目前正處於其主要阻力帶附近,上行空間可能依然受限。

原油展望:在支撐位上方維持盤整

原油市場方面,揮之不去的地緣政治不確定性繼續為潛在的風險溢價提供支撐。這一動態阻止了油價進一步深度跌落,使得油價能夠牢牢守在其主要技術支撐位上方。

短期展望仍傾向於該支撐地板上方進行盤整,因為市場參與者均意識到,中東地區的風險溢價尚未被市場完全剔除。

UKOUSD, H4 圖表 | Ultima Markets MT5

UKOUSD, H4 圖表 | Ultima Markets MT5

對於 UKOUSD(布蘭特原油)而言,價格目前正處於大震盪區間的下邊界交易,這也是自中東危機爆發以來的低點附近。這釋放出訊號,表明多頭仍在力挺該水準,且地緣政治溢價並未被完全做空。

雖然這種風險溢價本身不太可能單獨推動油價大幅走高,但短期展望依然有撐。具體而言,近期的價格走勢已形成了一個微型的倒頭肩底形態,暗示多頭正在積極防禦該區域。

如果我們看到價格在短期內突破 100.00 點大關,布蘭特原油可能仍將迎來一波上行攻勢。

比特幣展望:跌破 70,000 後測試關鍵支撐

除了股市和外匯市場外,加密貨幣板塊無疑是本周最受矚目的焦點。在決定性地跌破 70,000 美元這一重大心理關口後,比特幣(BTCUSD)正面臨迫切的下行壓力。

隨著看跌動能加速聚集,市場焦點已完全轉移到 64,000 至 65,000 美元之間的關鍵支撐帶。

BTCUSD, Daily 圖表 | Ultima Markets MT5

BTCUSD, Daily 圖表 | Ultima Markets MT5

在跌破先前宣告更廣泛看漲反轉失效的 75,000 水準後,比特幣如今再度跌破了 70,000 核心軸線。這表明空頭已再度完全主導了市場。

目前,交易員應密切注視該區域,以觀察買方是否會介入並捍衛 64,000 – 65,000 的水準。如果該區帶能夠力挺不破,則有望形成堅實的結構性底部,並為短線反彈鋪平道路,或至少確立一個長期的週期性底部。

而一旦跌破該區域,則將訊號更廣泛看跌趨勢的延續,或者市場可能會轉入更長時間的盤整期,從而為長期築底蓄勢。

市場展望總結

總結而言,週三的交易時段呈現出強烈的兩極分化特徵:一邊是受到 AI 驅動而高歌猛進的股市,另一邊則是揮之不去的地緣政治風險。美元指數目前繼續受困於關鍵的 99.00 核心軸線附近橫盤震盪,等待明確的技術面催化劑。由於中東風險溢價依然存在,原油正在其結構性支撐位上方進行盤整。與此同時,在比特幣跌破 70,000 關口並下探 64,000 至 65,000 美元關鍵支撐帶之際,加密貨幣交易員已處於高度戒備狀態。

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