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霍爾木茲封鎖收緊，油價重回 100 美元

能源市場今日再度陷入混亂，布蘭特原油期貨重新突破 100 美元大關，而截至發稿時 WTI 交易價格接近 94 美元。儘管美伊之間維持著暫時性的停火，但霍爾木茲海峽仍處於封鎖狀態，導致全球 20% 的石油和液化天然氣 (LNG) 供應癱瘓。

美伊/中東局勢更新

  • 美國總統川普無限期延長了原定於週三到期的美伊停火協議。
  • 然而，川普表示，由於封鎖僵局導致談判停滯，美伊戰爭「沒有時間表」。
  • 以色列加大了對黎巴嫩的襲擊，嚴重破壞了脆弱的地區停火協議。
  • 伊朗表示，由於停火協議不斷遭到破壞，霍爾木茲海峽無法開放。

這導致基準原油的風險溢價持續回歸。自 2 月底衝突開始以來，布蘭特原油已飆升 42%。持續的封鎖正迫使機構對印度等依賴石油的經濟體進行了大規模的「減持」評級下調。

與此同時，通膨隱憂增加。隨著油價達到三位數，「高利率將維持更久」的觀點不再是理論——它已成為央行的生存機制，並在此過程中打擊了風險偏好。

然而，美國股市受強勁財報驅動創下歷史新高，而歐洲股市的漲勢因能源危機影響加劇而面臨壓力。

能源市場的下一步動向？

如果封鎖不能在週內解除，Ultima Markets 分析師警告油價可能出現「粉碎性」上漲，再次逼近 120 美元。市場正密切關注美伊停火條款；任何對和平的破壞或持久的僵局都可能引發能源價格的另一輪劇烈上漲，並導致新興市場股市的全面崩盤。

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