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日本 CPI 低於 2% ，美元/日圓挑戰 160.00 關口

日圓今日持續走軟，美元/日圓 (USD/JPY) 徘徊在 160.00 的關鍵心理阻力位附近（報 159.80 附近）。此前公布的日本 3 月全國核心 CPI 年增率為 1.8%，雖然符合預期，但已連續第二個月低於日本央行 (BoJ) 2.0% 的目標。

雖然通膨率較 2 月的 1.6% 有所回升，但「核心核心」指數（剔除食品與能源）從 2.5% 放緩至 2.4%。

市場分析與核心驅動力

  • 「補貼」盾牌： 政府的燃料補貼抑制了整體通膨的加速，有效地抵銷了因持續的霍爾木茲海峽封鎖所引發的巨大「能源衝擊」。
  • 政策分歧： 儘管大宗商品價格上漲，日本首相高市早苗仍對激進升息表示擔憂，這導致市場相信日本央行將在下週的會議上維持 0.75% 的利率不變。
  • 地緣政治「美元買盤」： 中東局勢持續緊張，以及美軍針對伊朗佈雷船隻的海軍行動，正推動避險資金流入美元而非日圓，進一步削弱了日圓的表現。

日圓接下來的關注焦點？

交易員正密切關注 160.00 水位。一旦突破該關口，可能觸發財務省的緊急口頭干預，甚至直接進場進行市場干預。

此外，市場正在尋找即便維持利率不變也能釋放的「鷹派訊號」。如果總裁植田和男未能明確承諾 6 月升息，日圓可能會跌向 162.00 水平。

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